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Emerging Market Just Bests Pavlovian In Louisiana Derby Thriller

| 7:03 pm

And you thought a March Madness-esque upset would be limited to basketball.

A proverbial 16 seed nearly took down the favorite in the Louisiana Region when maiden winner and ‘TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard’ Emerging Market (Candy Ride {Arg}), the narrow 2-1 favorite, had to gut out a win over 21-1 longshot Pavlovian (Pavel) to win Saturday’s GII Louisiana Derby by a head.

Named a ‘Rising Star’ for his debut win at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 7 that netted him an eye-catching 97 Beyer Speed Figure, Triple Crown-nominated Emerging Market took plenty of money in the ship west to New Orleans for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. Breaking at 2-1 from the far outside under Flavien Prat, the favorite was outrun by a trio of speedier runners, including Pavlovian, to his inside and tucked down in behind them to save ground into the first turn.

A three-wide charge onto the backstretch finally settled out as Pavlovian, coming in off a win in the Sunland Park Derby Feb. 15, established command and put up an opening quarter in :22.65. He was chased intently by both 45-1 shot Autobahn (Nyquist) and 2-1 second choice Chip Honco (Connect).

Emerging Market, still well in touch but the back marker of the leading five, got his cue at the half-mile pole and started to really pick up the bridle for Prat who circled him up four wide around the far turn.

With just the race favorite and Pavlovian left to duke it out with an eighth of a mile left to run, each runner looked a winner at times while fellow ‘Rising Star’ Golden Tempo (Curlin) was making his late bid from the back. The rivals refused to yield but it was Emerging Market who had the final say, battling back from a slight disadvantage dangerously close to the wire to just get his head down in front. Golden Tempo’s run came up short as the GIII Lecomte winner settled for third.

“In his first race he showed a lot of professionalism,” Prat said. “I was a little worried about the nine hole, but we worked out a good trip. He fought hard. It was a good run, very professional. Honestly, when I turned for home I thought I would win easily, but Pavlovian gave us a good challenge.”

With 100 points earned Saturday, Emerging Market now sits second on the Road to the Kentucky Derby behind Fulleffort. Pavlovian slots into third with 70 points and Golden Tempo jumps to sixth with 60 points.

Pedigree Note:
Perennial Lane’s End stalwart Candy Ride has now sired 60 individual graded stakes winners and 120 stakes winners. Stoneriggs, who bred Emerging Market, picked up his dam for $85,000 via the Fasig-Tipton Digital platform back in March 2022. This is her first foal.

Wild Empress, though unplaced herself on the track, is a half-sister to Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old filly She Be Wild (Offlee Wild) who won the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2009.

She has since produced a 2-year-old Charlatan colt picked up for $185,000 as a Keeneland September Yearling grad by Yamaguchi Stable. She has a yearling Practical Joke colt and is due this year to Constitution.

 

Saturday, Fair Grounds
TWINSPIRES.COM LOUISIANA DERBY-GII, $1,000,000, Fair Grounds, 3-21, 3yo, 1 3/16m, 1:55.18, ft.
1–EMERGING MARKET, 122, c, 3, by Candy Ride (Arg)
            1st Dam: Wild Empress, by Empire Maker
            2nd Dam: Trappings, by Seeking the Gold
            3rd Dam: Duck Trap, by Affirmed
‘TDN Rising Star’. 1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES
WIN. ($185,000 Ylg ’24 KEESEP). O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.;
B-Stoneriggs Farm (KY); T-Chad C. Brown; J-Flavien Prat.
$600,000. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $618,880. Werk Nick
Rating: A+. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Pavlovian, 122, c, 3, Pavel–Mandy’s Grace, by Bellamy Road.
O/B-Reddam Racing, LLC (CA); T-Doug F. O’Neill. $200,000.
3–Golden Tempo, 122, c, 3, Curlin–Carrumba, by Bernardini.
‘TDN Rising Star‘. O-Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-Phipps
Stable & St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. $100,000.
Margins: HD, 1, 5HF. Odds: 2.00, 21.70, 3.10.
Also Ran: Universe, Chip Honcho, Blacksmith, Spirit of Royal, Easterly, Autobahn. Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.